COVID-19 is one of the massive challenges that has faced the world since the end of World War II. Egypt was one of the countries that were seriously affected by COVID-19. As a result, the Egyptian authorities, and government had to take many precautionary and preventive procedures to protect Egyptian citizens. This research aims to model confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections in Egypt from (March 4th, 2020) to (June 29th, 2021) as an estimation period of the model, while the data from (June 30th (2021) to (July 14th, 2021) was used as a prediction period. It has been proved that The ARIMA (4,1,5) model is the appropriate and efficient one for representing the time series data, with the least mean squares of MSE errors after comparing several ARIMA models at the first differences. It was, also, concluded that the number of infected people is going to increase. So, it is necessary for the Egyptian authorities to take urgent precautionary measures to limit this pandemic increase.
حجاج, عبد الوهاب السيد, & عجمي, محمد عبد السلام. (2023). Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA Models. مجلة البحوث التجارية المعاصرة, 37(1), 155-176. doi: 10.21608/sjcp.2023.419645
MLA
عبد الوهاب السيد حجاج; محمد عبد السلام عجمي. "Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA Models", مجلة البحوث التجارية المعاصرة, 37, 1, 2023, 155-176. doi: 10.21608/sjcp.2023.419645
HARVARD
حجاج, عبد الوهاب السيد, عجمي, محمد عبد السلام. (2023). 'Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA Models', مجلة البحوث التجارية المعاصرة, 37(1), pp. 155-176. doi: 10.21608/sjcp.2023.419645
VANCOUVER
حجاج, عبد الوهاب السيد, عجمي, محمد عبد السلام. Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA Models. مجلة البحوث التجارية المعاصرة, 2023; 37(1): 155-176. doi: 10.21608/sjcp.2023.419645
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